Discounted Cash Flow
Ecopetrol S.A. ADR
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $15.6b | $788.2m | $4.6b | 5.0% | $59.50 |
| 2017 | $18.0b (15.4%) | $2.3b (193.3%) | $5.5b (19.3%) | 12.8% (154.1%) | $174.60 (193.4%) |
| 2018 | $22.1b (22.6%) | $3.7b (58.5%) | $7.2b (32.4%) | 16.6% (29.3%) | $276.80 (58.5%) |
| 2019 | $23.0b (4.2%) | $4.4b (20.8%) | $8.9b (23.3%) | 19.2% (15.9%) | $334.27 (20.8%) |
| 2020 | $16.2b (-29.7%) | $510.9m (-88.5%) | $3.0b (-66.8%) | 3.2% (-83.6%) | $38.59 (-88.5%) |
| 2021 | $29.6b (82.9%) | $5.0b (886.3%) | $7.3b (145.3%) | 17.0% (439.1%) | $380.60 (886.3%) |
| 2022 | $51.4b (73.7%) | $10.2b (102.0%) | $4.6b (-36.3%) | 19.8% (16.3%) | $768.70 (102.0%) |
| 2023 | $46.1b (-10.3%) | $6.8b (-33.4%) | $-1.4b (-129.9%) | 14.7% (-25.7%) | $512.20 (-33.4%) |
| 2024 | $42.9b (-6.9%) | $4.5b (-34.3%) | $7.8b (664.2%) | 10.4% (-29.4%) | $336.60 (-34.3%) |
| 2025 | $38.5b (-10.2%) | $3.4b (-24.2%) | $4.0b (-48.3%) | 8.8% (-15.6%) | $255.10 (-24.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in COP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.