Discounted Cash Flow
Ecolab Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 11.4% (2022) → 8.0% (2023) → 2.7% (2024) → 2.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 2.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $15.3b | $1.4b | $1.4b | 9.3% | $4.20 |
| 2017 | $16.1b (5.2%) | $1.8b (22.7%) | $1.5b (5.6%) | 10.9% (16.6%) | $5.21 (24.0%) |
| 2018 | $17.0b (6.0%) | $1.7b (-5.3%) | $1.7b (9.9%) | 9.7% (-10.6%) | $4.95 (-5.0%) |
| 2019 | $17.3b (1.6%) | $1.8b (9.1%) | $1.9b (13.2%) | 10.5% (7.3%) | $5.41 (9.3%) |
| 2020 | $13.7b (-20.9%) | $-1.4b (-177.3%) | $1.6b (-15.4%) | -10.2% (-197.7%) | $-4.20 (-177.6%) |
| 2021 | $14.8b (8.0%) | $1.3b (193.8%) | $1.6b (3.5%) | 8.9% (186.8%) | $3.95 (194.0%) |
| 2022 | $16.5b (11.4%) | $1.3b (-3.4%) | $1.2b (-24.2%) | 7.7% (-13.3%) | $3.83 (-3.0%) |
| 2023 | $17.8b (8.0%) | $1.6b (25.7%) | $1.9b (52.2%) | 9.0% (16.4%) | $4.82 (25.8%) |
| 2024 | $18.3b (2.7%) | $2.5b (53.9%) | $2.1b (11.1%) | 13.4% (49.8%) | $7.43 (54.1%) |
| 2025 | $18.7b (2.2%) | $2.4b (-1.7%) | $2.2b (4.7%) | 12.9% (-3.8%) | $7.33 (-1.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.