Discounted Cash Flow

Energy Co. of Parana ADR

ELPC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from BRL to USD (4 ordinary shares per ADR)

⚠ Cash flow predictability 48/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 59%, net income 51% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.6b $274.0m $37.8m 10.6%
2017 $2.8b (7.0%) $273.7m (-0.1%) $-42.5m (-212.4%) 9.9% (-6.7%)
2018 $2.9b (6.5%) $384.4m (40.4%) $55.4m (230.3%) 13.1% (31.9%)
2019 $3.2b (8.8%) $531.0m (38.1%) $472.0m (752.0%) 16.6% (27.0%)
2020 $3.7b (14.7%) $1.0b (89.5%) $729.9m (54.7%) 27.5% (65.2%)
2021 $4.7b (28.7%) $1.0b (-0.0%) $599.1m (-17.9%) 21.3% (-22.3%)
2022 $4.3b (-8.6%) $186.7m (-81.4%) $661.7m (10.4%) 4.3% (-79.7%) $1.45
2023 $4.2b (-2.0%) $489.3m (162.0%) $651.2m (-1.6%) 11.6% (167.5%) $2.39 (65.3%)
2024 $4.5b (5.5%) $571.3m (16.8%) $639.8m (-1.7%) 12.8% (10.7%) $2.38 (-0.4%)
2025 $5.1b (15.3%) $638.0m (11.7%) $563.3m (-12.0%) 12.4% (-3.1%) $0.90 (-62.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model