Discounted Cash Flow
First Citizens Bancshares Inc.
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $944.7m | $225.5m | $150.6m | 23.9% | $18.77 |
| 2017 | $1.1b (12.2%) | $323.8m (43.6%) | $266.9m (77.2%) | 30.5% (28.0%) | $26.96 (43.6%) |
| 2018 | $1.2b (14.1%) | $400.3m (23.6%) | $625.4m (134.3%) | 33.1% (8.4%) | $33.53 (24.4%) |
| 2019 | $1.3b (8.5%) | $457.4m (14.3%) | $419.5m (-32.9%) | 34.9% (5.3%) | $41.05 (22.4%) |
| 2020 | $1.4b (5.9%) | $491.7m (7.5%) | $206.6m (-50.7%) | 35.4% (1.6%) | $47.50 (15.7%) |
| 2021 | $1.4b (0.2%) | $547.5m (11.3%) | $-391.1m (-289.3%) | 39.4% (11.2%) | $53.88 (13.4%) |
| 2022 | $2.9b (111.9%) | $1.1b (100.6%) | $2.6b (773.9%) | 37.3% (-5.3%) | $67.47 (25.2%) |
| 2023 | $6.7b (127.8%) | $11.5b (944.3%) | $2.3b (-14.5%) | 170.8% (358.3%) | $785.14 (1063.7%) |
| 2024 | $9.8b (45.4%) | $2.8b (-75.8%) | $2.6b (13.5%) | 28.5% (-83.3%) | $189.42 (-75.9%) |
| 2025 | $9.5b (-2.2%) | $2.2b (-20.6%) | $2.2b (-13.5%) | 23.1% (-18.8%) | $165.24 (-12.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.