Discounted Cash Flow
Four Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $30.3m | $-48.7k | $16.8m | -0.2% | $0.97 |
| 2018 | $7.1m (-76.6%) | $-377.0k (-673.4%) | $-377.0k (-102.2%) | -5.3% (-3208.8%) | $0.34 (-64.9%) |
| 2019 | $7.5m (5.6%) | $-129.6k (65.6%) | $-129.6k (65.6%) | -1.7% (67.5%) | $-0.00 (-101.2%) |
| 2020 | $8.3m (10.9%) | $-11.3k (91.3%) | $12.1m (9407.4%) | -0.1% (92.1%) | $-0.66 (-16400.0%) |
| 2021 | $6.5m (-22.2%) | $46.2k (507.9%) | $4.4m (-63.5%) | 0.7% (624.3%) | $-0.19 (71.2%) |
| 2022 | $5.9m (-8.4%) | $-785.7k (-1800.0%) | $-785.7k (-117.9%) | -13.3% (-1955.8%) | $-0.80 (-321.1%) |
| 2023 | $735.9k (-87.6%) | $-569.8k (27.5%) | $-4.0m (-407.4%) | -77.4% (-482.8%) | $-0.20 (75.0%) |
| 2024 | $2.6m (253.1%) | $-325.9k (42.8%) | $1.3m (132.5%) | -12.5% (83.8%) | $0.03 (115.0%) |
| 2025 | $37.4m (1340.6%) | $-212.9k (34.7%) | $1.8m (39.7%) | -0.6% (95.5%) | $0.01 (-66.7%) |
| 2026 | $37.9m (1.3%) | $-252.8k (-18.8%) | $4.3m (139.8%) | -0.7% (-17.2%) | $0.20 (1900.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.