Discounted Cash Flow
Phoenix New Media Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $30.9m | $1.7m | $4.4m | 5.6% | — |
| 2017 | $36.0m (16.3%) | $856.3k (-50.4%) | $4.0m (-9.4%) | 2.4% (-57.4%) | — |
| 2018 | $29.8m (-17.2%) | $-1.4m (-259.7%) | $-1.7m (-142.0%) | -4.6% (-292.9%) | — |
| 2019 | $32.7m (9.8%) | $15.5m (1237.0%) | $-7.1m (-324.6%) | 47.5% (1135.7%) | — |
| 2020 | $27.5m (-15.8%) | $9.5m (-38.7%) | $-2.3m (66.7%) | 34.6% (-27.3%) | — |
| 2021 | $153.2m (456.1%) | $-30.6m (-421.1%) | $-21.2m (-803.8%) | -20.0% (-157.7%) | — |
| 2022 | $116.8m (-23.7%) | $-16.3m (46.7%) | $-51.5m (-142.5%) | -14.0% (30.1%) | — |
| 2023 | $102.9m (-11.9%) | $-15.2m (6.5%) | $-10.5m (79.6%) | -14.8% (-6.1%) | — |
| 2024 | $104.6m (1.7%) | $-8.0m (47.8%) | $-7.4m (29.8%) | -7.6% (48.6%) | — |
| 2025 | $113.8m (8.8%) | $50.0k (100.6%) | $-2.3m (68.3%) | 0.0% (100.6%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.