Discounted Cash Flow
Finvolution Group ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $180.2m | $74.8m | — | 41.5% | $-0.09 |
| 2017 | $89.3m (-50.5%) | $24.8m (-66.8%) | $40.6m | 27.8% (-33.0%) | $-2.55 (-2704.9%) |
| 2018 | $93.0m (4.1%) | $53.5m (115.7%) | $39.1m (-3.9%) | 57.6% (107.2%) | $0.24 (109.4%) |
| 2019 | $889.1m (856.2%) | $50.8m (-5.1%) | $-5.7m (-114.5%) | 5.7% (-90.1%) | $0.22 (-6.8%) |
| 2020 | $1.1b (26.8%) | $45.1m (-11.3%) | $50.2m (986.9%) | 4.0% (-30.1%) | $0.20 (-10.5%) |
| 2021 | $1.2b (9.5%) | $58.7m (30.2%) | $13.5m (-73.2%) | 4.8% (18.9%) | $0.28 (40.0%) |
| 2022 | $1.5b (21.2%) | $49.0m (-16.5%) | $34.2m (154.1%) | 3.3% (-31.2%) | $0.23 (-17.9%) |
| 2023 | $1.7b (16.1%) | $49.2m (0.3%) | $191.6m (460.5%) | 2.8% (-13.6%) | $0.24 (4.3%) |
| 2024 | $266.9m (-84.7%) | $48.7m (-1.0%) | $430.8m (124.8%) | 18.2% (545.2%) | $0.25 (4.2%) |
| 2025 | $289.3m (8.4%) | $54.2m (11.4%) | $276.7m (-35.8%) | 18.7% (2.7%) | $0.29 (16.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.