Discounted Cash Flow
Fresenius Medical Care AG ADR
—
Sales growth has weakened: 10.1% (2022) → 0.3% (2023) → -0.6% (2024) → 1.5% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 1.5% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $19.2b | $1.3b | $628.5m | 6.9% | $3.74 |
| 2017 | $20.7b (7.3%) | $1.5b (11.9%) | $2.5b (294.4%) | 7.2% (4.2%) | $4.17 (11.5%) |
| 2018 | $19.2b (-7.0%) | $2.3b (54.9%) | $373.1m (-84.9%) | 12.0% (66.4%) | $6.47 (55.2%) |
| 2019 | $20.3b (5.6%) | $1.4b (-39.5%) | $2.3b (512.5%) | 6.9% (-42.7%) | $3.96 (-38.8%) |
| 2020 | $20.7b (2.2%) | $1.4b (-2.9%) | $4.5b (96.6%) | 6.5% (-5.0%) | $3.96 (0.0%) |
| 2021 | $20.5b (-1.3%) | $1.1b (-16.8%) | $2.9b (-35.6%) | 5.5% (-15.6%) | $3.31 (-16.4%) |
| 2022 | $22.5b (10.1%) | $782.2m (-30.5%) | $1.7b (-42.0%) | 3.5% (-36.9%) | $2.30 (-30.5%) |
| 2023 | $22.6b (0.3%) | $579.6m (-25.9%) | $2.3b (34.7%) | 2.6% (-26.1%) | $1.70 (-26.1%) |
| 2024 | $22.5b (-0.6%) | $624.8m (7.8%) | $2.0b (-13.2%) | 2.8% (8.5%) | $1.83 (7.6%) |
| 2025 | $22.8b (1.5%) | $1.1b (81.9%) | $2.4b (24.2%) | 5.0% (79.2%) | $3.36 (83.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.