Discounted Cash Flow
Fossil Group, Inc.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 47/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 78%,
net income 67% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $3.2b | $-555.4m | $178.9m | -17.2% | $-9.87 |
| 2018 | $3.0b (-8.8%) | $-4.0m (99.3%) | $267.4m (49.4%) | -0.1% (99.2%) | $-0.07 (99.3%) |
| 2019 | $2.6b (-12.7%) | $-60.8m (-1405.6%) | $-40.8m (-115.3%) | -2.4% (-1625.4%) | $-1.04 (-1385.7%) |
| 2020 | $1.9b (-27.3%) | $-111.6m (-83.5%) | $107.4m (363.5%) | -6.0% (-152.3%) | $-1.88 (-80.8%) |
| 2021 | $1.9b (0.0%) | $-111.6m (0.0%) | $107.4m (0.0%) | -6.0% (0.0%) | $-1.88 (0.0%) |
| 2022 | $2.0b (4.3%) | $-51.3m (54.0%) | $42.7m (-60.3%) | -2.6% (55.9%) | $-0.85 (54.8%) |
| 2023 | $1.6b (-16.1%) | $-182.5m (-255.7%) | $-79.0m (-284.9%) | -11.1% (-323.8%) | $-3.00 (-252.9%) |
| 2024 | $1.3b (-18.9%) | $-119.3m (34.6%) | $46.4m (158.7%) | -9.0% (19.4%) | $-1.94 (35.3%) |
| 2025 | $1.2b (-12.3%) | $-91.0m (23.7%) | $-70.2m (-251.4%) | -7.8% (13.1%) | $-1.45 (25.3%) |
| 2026 | $1.2b (0.0%) | $-91.0m (0.0%) | $-70.2m (0.0%) | -7.8% (0.0%) | $-1.45 (0.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.