Discounted Cash Flow
Futu Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: China-based foreign filer (HFCA Act, VIE-style structure): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor or the ADRs can be delisted from Nasdaq; dividends must be repatriated through China and can be blocked. Softener: Futu completed a dual-primary listing on HKEX on 2022-12-30 (code 3588), so a US delisting would mostly migrate trading to its independent Hong Kong line rather than strand ADS holders — venue-migration risk, not stranded-asset risk. Audit-inspection and repatriation risks remain at full strength.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $39.7m | $1.9m | $1.9m | 4.8% | $-0.14 |
| 2018 | $57.5m (44.6%) | $17.7m (832.2%) | $17.7m (832.2%) | 30.7% (544.6%) | $0.09 (164.3%) |
| 2019 | $9.8m (-83.0%) | $2.7m (-84.6%) | $17.2m (-2.9%) | 27.8% (-9.6%) | $0.17 (88.9%) |
| 2020 | $38.6m (294.9%) | $21.8m (703.9%) | $21.8m (27.1%) | 56.5% (103.6%) | $1.28 (652.9%) |
| 2021 | $75.2m (94.9%) | $45.9m (110.8%) | $89.3m (309.7%) | 61.1% (8.2%) | $2.34 (82.8%) |
| 2022 | $71.9m (-4.3%) | $47.8m (4.1%) | $45.3m (-49.3%) | 66.5% (8.8%) | $2.57 (9.8%) |
| 2023 | $73.0m (1.5%) | $69.9m (46.1%) | $-113.4m (-350.5%) | 95.7% (43.9%) | $3.88 (51.0%) |
| 2024 | $113.7m (55.7%) | $89.4m (27.8%) | $487.5m (530.0%) | 78.6% (-17.9%) | $4.93 (27.1%) |
| 2025 | $203.3m (78.8%) | $185.8m (107.9%) | $661.3m (35.6%) | 91.4% (16.2%) | $10.17 (106.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in HKD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.