Discounted Cash Flow
GAP Inc.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 50/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 70%,
net income 75% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $102.5m | $6.0m | $5.6m | 5.8% | $2.24 |
| 2017 | $100.7m (-1.8%) | $4.4m (-26.5%) | $7.8m (37.7%) | 4.4% (-25.2%) | $1.69 (-24.6%) |
| 2018 | $102.9m (2.2%) | $5.5m (25.4%) | $4.2m (-45.7%) | 5.3% (22.8%) | $2.16 (27.8%) |
| 2019 | $107.6m (4.6%) | $6.5m (18.3%) | $4.4m (4.2%) | 6.0% (13.1%) | $2.61 (20.8%) |
| 2020 | $106.3m (-1.2%) | $2.3m (-65.0%) | $4.6m (4.9%) | 2.1% (-64.6%) | $0.93 (-64.4%) |
| 2021 | $89.6m (-15.8%) | $-4.3m (-289.5%) | $-1.0m (-121.9%) | -4.8% (-324.9%) | $-1.78 (-291.4%) |
| 2022 | $108.2m (20.8%) | $1.7m (138.5%) | $746.4k (174.2%) | 1.5% (131.9%) | $0.68 (138.2%) |
| 2023 | $101.3m (-6.3%) | $-1.3m (-178.9%) | $-506.2k (-167.8%) | -1.3% (-184.2%) | $-0.55 (-180.9%) |
| 2024 | $96.6m (-4.7%) | $3.3m (348.5%) | $7.2m (1525.6%) | 3.4% (360.6%) | $1.36 (347.3%) |
| 2025 | $97.9m (1.3%) | $5.5m (68.1%) | $6.7m (-6.6%) | 5.6% (65.9%) | $2.24 (64.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.