Discounted Cash Flow
Gdev Inc. Foreign
—
Sales growth has weakened: 10.5% (2022) → -3.2% (2023) → -9.4% (2024) → -3.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -3.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $14.0m | $-5.3m | $2.2m | -37.9% | $-0.20 |
| 2020 | $38.9m (178.1%) | $-112.0k (97.9%) | $18.0m (706.7%) | -0.3% (99.2%) | $0.00 (100.0%) |
| 2021 | $64.7m (66.4%) | $-17.5m (-15539.8%) | $15.6m (-13.3%) | -27.1% (-9299.6%) | $-0.64 |
| 2022 | $71.5m (10.5%) | $1.1m (106.2%) | $1.1m (-93.0%) | 1.5% (105.6%) | $0.04 (106.2%) |
| 2023 | $69.3m (-3.2%) | $6.9m (531.5%) | $2.6m (135.7%) | 9.9% (552.0%) | $0.23 (475.0%) |
| 2024 | $62.8m (-9.4%) | $3.8m (-44.6%) | $-683.5k (-126.6%) | 6.1% (-38.9%) | $1.40 (508.7%) |
| 2025 | $60.3m (-3.9%) | $10.3m (171.5%) | $4.4m (742.2%) | 17.1% (182.7%) | $3.82 (172.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.