Discounted Cash Flow
GDS Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $157.5m | $-41.2m | $-169.7m | -26.2% | — |
| 2017 | $241.0m (53.1%) | $-48.7m (-18.3%) | $-282.5m (-66.5%) | -20.2% (22.7%) | — |
| 2018 | $416.3m (72.8%) | $-64.2m (-31.6%) | $-637.3m (-125.6%) | -15.4% (23.8%) | — |
| 2019 | $614.7m (47.6%) | $-65.9m (-2.7%) | $-635.8m (0.2%) | -10.7% (30.4%) | — |
| 2020 | $855.7m (39.2%) | $-99.4m (-50.7%) | $-99.4m (84.4%) | -11.6% (-8.3%) | — |
| 2021 | $1.2b (36.2%) | $-177.0m (-78.2%) | $-1.3b (-1175.4%) | -15.2% (-30.8%) | $-0.90 |
| 2022 | $1.4b (19.3%) | $-189.2m (-6.9%) | $-743.9m (41.3%) | -13.6% (10.4%) | $-1.03 (-14.4%) |
| 2023 | $1.5b (6.8%) | $-639.7m (-238.1%) | $-590.0m (20.7%) | -43.1% (-216.7%) | $-2.96 (-187.4%) |
| 2024 | $1.5b (3.7%) | $510.8m (179.8%) | $-183.5m (68.9%) | 33.2% (177.0%) | $2.27 (176.7%) |
| 2025 | $1.7b (10.8%) | $141.6m (-72.3%) | $-197.7m (-7.7%) | 8.3% (-75.0%) | $0.59 (-74.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.