Discounted Cash Flow
GEO Group Inc.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 51/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 66%,
net income 56% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.0b | $201.7m | $-148.7m | 6.8% | $2.01 |
| 2017 | $3.1b (3.9%) | $198.4m (-1.7%) | $315.6m (312.3%) | 6.5% (-5.3%) | $1.22 (-39.3%) |
| 2018 | $3.2b (3.0%) | $196.8m (-0.8%) | $106.9m (-66.1%) | 6.2% (-3.7%) | $1.21 (-0.8%) |
| 2019 | $3.4b (6.3%) | $226.0m (14.8%) | $299.6m (180.3%) | 6.7% (8.0%) | $1.40 (15.7%) |
| 2020 | $3.2b (-5.2%) | $153.3m (-32.2%) | $451.6m (50.7%) | 4.8% (-28.5%) | $0.94 (-32.9%) |
| 2021 | $3.1b (-4.0%) | $105.0m (-31.5%) | $289.3m (-36.0%) | 3.4% (-28.7%) | $0.59 (-37.2%) |
| 2022 | $3.2b (5.3%) | $233.1m (121.9%) | $280.0m (-3.2%) | 7.2% (110.7%) | $1.18 (100.0%) |
| 2023 | $3.3b (1.5%) | $145.6m (-37.5%) | $287.5m (2.7%) | 4.4% (-38.5%) | $0.73 (-38.1%) |
| 2024 | $3.3b (0.4%) | $43.4m (-70.2%) | $221.8m (-22.8%) | 1.3% (-70.3%) | $0.23 (-68.5%) |
| 2025 | $3.6b (8.6%) | $345.1m (695.8%) | $-169.4m (-176.4%) | 9.7% (632.9%) | $1.85 (704.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.