Discounted Cash Flow
Gerdau S.A. ADR
—
Sales growth has weakened: 5.2% (2022) → -16.4% (2023) → -2.7% (2024) → 4.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $7.3b | $-564.1m | $667.6m | -7.7% | $-1.70 |
| 2017 | $7.2b (-1.9%) | $-70.1m (87.6%) | $234.7m (-64.8%) | -1.0% (87.3%) | $-0.21 (87.6%) |
| 2018 | $9.0b (25.0%) | $449.6m (741.1%) | $342.7m (46.0%) | 5.0% (612.7%) | $1.35 (742.9%) |
| 2019 | $7.7b (-14.1%) | $234.9m (-47.8%) | $-20.3m (-105.9%) | 3.0% (-39.2%) | $0.71 (-47.4%) |
| 2020 | $8.5b (10.5%) | $461.7m (96.5%) | $1.3b (6272.8%) | 5.4% (77.8%) | $1.39 (95.8%) |
| 2021 | $15.3b (78.8%) | $3.0b (554.9%) | $1.9b (48.1%) | 19.8% (266.3%) | $9.09 (554.0%) |
| 2022 | $16.1b (5.2%) | $2.2b (-26.3%) | $1.3b (-29.7%) | 13.9% (-29.9%) | $13.06 (43.7%) |
| 2023 | $13.4b (-16.4%) | $1.5b (-34.3%) | $1.1b (-13.0%) | 10.9% (-21.5%) | $8.58 (-34.3%) |
| 2024 | $13.1b (-2.7%) | $891.1m (-39.1%) | $1.1b (-6.3%) | 6.8% (-37.4%) | $4.36 (-49.2%) |
| 2025 | $13.6b (4.2%) | $270.7m (-69.6%) | $221.4m (-79.1%) | 2.0% (-70.9%) | $1.38 (-68.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.