Discounted Cash Flow
Greentree Hospitality Group Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $96.6m | $39.7m | $65.3m | 41.1% | $5.82 |
| 2017 | $116.0m (20.1%) | $42.6m (7.3%) | $68.6m (5.1%) | 36.7% (-10.7%) | $6.24 (7.2%) |
| 2018 | $20.5m (-82.3%) | $8.5m (-79.9%) | $79.7m (16.2%) | 41.7% (13.7%) | $7.94 (27.2%) |
| 2019 | $23.4m (14.1%) | $9.5m (10.9%) | $72.1m (-9.6%) | 40.5% (-2.8%) | $8.68 (9.3%) |
| 2020 | $21.3m (-9.1%) | $6.0m (-37.0%) | $41.5m (-42.5%) | 28.1% (-30.7%) | $5.08 (-41.5%) |
| 2021 | $28.2m (32.8%) | $2.7m (-54.0%) | $2.7m (-93.4%) | 9.7% (-65.4%) | $2.28 (-55.1%) |
| 2022 | $20.3m (-28.2%) | $-8.3m (-400.7%) | $42.1m (1431.4%) | -40.8% (-519.0%) | $-8.26 (-462.3%) |
| 2023 | $242.6m (1098.1%) | $5.7m (168.4%) | $5.7m (-86.6%) | 2.3% (105.7%) | $5.28 (163.9%) |
| 2024 | $200.3m (-17.4%) | $2.2m (-60.3%) | $2.2m (-60.3%) | 1.1% (-51.9%) | $2.16 (-59.1%) |
| 2025 | $163.6m (-18.3%) | $3.6m (58.3%) | $3.6m (58.3%) | 2.2% (93.8%) | $3.30 (52.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.