Discounted Cash Flow
Gates Industrial Corp. Plc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 2.8% (2022) → -4.5% (2023) → 1.0% (2024) → -18.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -18.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.2b | $67.0m | $433.0m | 2.1% | $0.23 |
| 2017 | $3.5b (10.7%) | $175.8m (162.2%) | $369.6m (-14.6%) | 5.0% (136.8%) | $0.60 (160.9%) |
| 2018 | $3.9b (10.1%) | $284.9m (62.1%) | $363.0m (-1.8%) | 7.3% (47.3%) | $0.84 (40.0%) |
| 2019 | $3.6b (-7.8%) | $801.6m (181.3%) | $403.2m (11.1%) | 22.4% (205.1%) | $2.37 (182.1%) |
| 2020 | $3.2b (-9.5%) | $92.2m (-88.5%) | $90.0m (-77.7%) | 2.8% (-87.3%) | $0.27 (-88.6%) |
| 2021 | $4.0b (24.4%) | $345.1m (274.2%) | $357.8m (297.4%) | 8.6% (200.8%) | $1.00 (270.4%) |
| 2022 | $4.1b (2.8%) | $270.5m (-21.6%) | $307.6m (-14.0%) | 6.5% (-23.7%) | $0.84 (-16.0%) |
| 2023 | $4.0b (-4.5%) | $226.4m (-16.3%) | $558.0m (81.4%) | 5.7% (-12.3%) | $0.74 (-11.9%) |
| 2024 | $4.0b (1.0%) | $292.0m (29.0%) | $439.5m (-21.2%) | 7.3% (27.7%) | $0.96 (29.7%) |
| 2025 | $3.2b (-18.9%) | $92.2m (-68.4%) | $551.9m (25.6%) | 2.8% (-61.1%) | $0.27 (-71.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.