Discounted Cash Flow

GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from EUR to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 50/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 55%, net income 87% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2019 $7.1b $69.7m $-89.4m 1.0% $0.52
2020 $7.2b (1.7%) $-36.0m (-151.7%) $128.9m (244.2%) -0.5% (-150.8%) $-0.27 (-151.9%)
2021 $9.2b (28.2%) $177.7m (593.5%) $238.1m (84.7%) 1.9% (485.1%) $1.33 (592.6%)
2022 $10.4b (13.3%) $232.3m (30.7%) $232.3m (-2.4%) 2.2% (15.4%) $1.68 (26.3%)
2023 $11.4b (8.7%) $8.1m (-96.5%) $329.9m (42.0%) 0.1% (-96.8%) $1.93 (14.9%)
2024 $13.6b (19.7%) $2.3m (-71.4%) $220.7m (-33.1%) 0.0% (-76.1%) $1.12 (-42.0%)
2025 $15.3b (12.5%) $39.5m (1600.0%) $127.8m (-42.1%) 0.3% (1410.5%) $0.28 (-75.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model