Discounted Cash Flow
Hutchmed (China) Ltd. ADR
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 44/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 69%,
net income 73% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $27.6m | $1.5m | $-1.8m | 5.4% | $0.20 |
| 2017 | $30.8m (11.6%) | $-3.4m (-328.6%) | $-1.8m (-0.5%) | -11.1% (-304.8%) | $-0.43 (-315.0%) |
| 2018 | $27.3m (-11.2%) | $-9.5m (-179.8%) | $-5.0m (-180.8%) | -34.9% (-215.2%) | $-1.13 (-162.8%) |
| 2019 | $26.1m (-4.3%) | $-13.5m (-41.7%) | $-11.4m (-128.2%) | -51.7% (-48.1%) | $-0.16 (85.8%) |
| 2020 | $29.1m (11.3%) | $-16.0m (-18.6%) | $-8.9m (21.8%) | -55.2% (-6.6%) | $-0.18 (-12.5%) |
| 2021 | $45.4m (56.2%) | $-24.8m (-54.8%) | $-28.1m (-215.1%) | -54.7% (0.9%) | $-0.25 (-38.9%) |
| 2022 | $54.4m (19.7%) | $-46.0m (-85.4%) | $-38.9m (-38.4%) | -84.6% (-54.8%) | $-0.43 (-72.0%) |
| 2023 | $106.9m (96.5%) | $12.9m (127.9%) | $23.8m (161.1%) | 12.0% (114.2%) | $0.12 (127.9%) |
| 2024 | $80.4m (-24.8%) | $4.8m (-62.6%) | $-2.2m (-109.3%) | 6.0% (-50.2%) | $0.04 (-66.7%) |
| 2025 | $69.9m (-13.0%) | $58.3m (1111.0%) | $-10.0m (-352.0%) | 83.3% (1291.4%) | $0.53 (1225.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in HKD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.