Discounted Cash Flow

Hagerty, Inc.

HGTY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from GBP to USD

—

⚠ Cash flow predictability 39/100 (unstable) — FCF YoY std dev 90%, net income 93% (full history)

▲ Accelerating sales growth

Sales growth has accelerated: 11.1% (2023) → 21.8% (2024) → 35.5% (2025). Revenue growth has been accelerating in recent years and is now 35.5% — rapidly accelerating growth may be difficult to sustain at this pace, or the DCF (based on historical averages) may understate future momentum.

⛔ High governance / audit risk

Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).

Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.

Average annual growth rates

Metric	10-Year	5-Year	3-Year
Sales	—	—	—
Free Cash Flow	—	—	—
Average (FCF & NI)	—	—	—
Net Income	—	—	—
Dividends	—	—	—

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric	10-Year	5-Year	3-Year
Sales	—	—	—
Free Cash Flow	—	—	—
Average (FCF & NI)	—	—	—
Net Income	—	—	—

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

—

Free cash flow growth —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Averaged growth (FCF & NI) —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Net income growth —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Sales growth (not added to calculations) —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

Or enter your own rate

Inflation rate (used with B/E only)

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR	Sales	Net Income	Free Cash Flow	Net Margin	EPS (diluted)
2020	$116.6m	$171.7k	$62.6m	0.1%	$1.27
2021	$145.3m (24.7%)	$538.1k (213.4%)	$-1.5m (-102.4%)	0.4% (151.4%)	$-0.75 (-158.7%)
2022	$190.3m (31.0%)	$40.1m (7356.0%)	$14.8m (1105.8%)	21.1% (5592.5%)	$0.03 (103.9%)
2023	$211.4m (11.1%)	$-10.7m (-126.8%)	$-10.7m (-172.6%)	-5.1% (-124.1%)	$0.33 (1052.4%)
2024	$257.6m (21.8%)	$-82.9m (-671.1%)	$210.5m (2058.7%)	-32.2% (-532.9%)	$0.89 (167.2%)
2025	$349.1m (35.5%)	$-135.5m (-63.5%)	$262.9m (24.9%)	-38.8% (-20.6%)	$1.58 (76.7%)

Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth: —

Projection period: — years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year	Projected cash flow	Discount Factor	Present Value

PV of projected FCF: —

Terminal FCF: —

Terminal value: —

PV of terminal value: —

Enterprise value (DCF): —

Current price: —

Alternative DCF Models

Model	Fair Value	Upside	PV(FCFs)	PV(Terminal)	Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) ⓘ	—	—	—	—	10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline) ⓘ	—	—	—	—	—
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) ⓘ	—	—	—	N/A	—

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model