Discounted Cash Flow
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. ADR
—
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⚠ Cash flow predictability 42/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 78%,
net income 89% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.2b | $-9.2m | $-5.3m | -0.8% | $0.79 |
| 2018 | $98.1m (-91.9%) | $-19.9m (-116.9%) | $-42.0m (-688.4%) | -20.3% (-2569.2%) | $-0.72 (-191.1%) |
| 2019 | $1.7b (1599.0%) | $-161.5m (-712.1%) | $-22.0m (47.5%) | -9.7% (52.2%) | $-4.98 (-591.7%) |
| 2020 | $1.8b (8.7%) | $-54.4m (66.3%) | $69.4m (414.9%) | -3.0% (69.0%) | $-1.64 (67.1%) |
| 2021 | $2.6b (42.7%) | $315.0m (679.4%) | $250.0m (260.1%) | 12.2% (506.0%) | $8.42 (613.4%) |
| 2022 | $2.6b (2.2%) | $-65.2m (-120.7%) | $44.0m (-82.4%) | -2.5% (-120.2%) | $-1.72 (-120.4%) |
| 2023 | $3.1b (15.5%) | $298.5m (558.2%) | $142.9m (225.1%) | 9.8% (496.5%) | $7.80 (553.5%) |
| 2024 | $3.8b (24.6%) | $531.8m (78.2%) | $449.1m (214.2%) | 14.0% (43.0%) | $13.86 (77.7%) |
| 2025 | $4.6b (20.4%) | $890.8m (67.5%) | $668.3m (48.8%) | 19.5% (39.1%) | $23.13 (66.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in ZAR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.