Discounted Cash Flow

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. ADR

HMY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from ZAR to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 42/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 78%, net income 89% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.2b $-9.2m $-5.3m -0.8% $0.79
2018 $98.1m (-91.9%) $-19.9m (-116.9%) $-42.0m (-688.4%) -20.3% (-2569.2%) $-0.72 (-191.1%)
2019 $1.7b (1599.0%) $-161.5m (-712.1%) $-22.0m (47.5%) -9.7% (52.2%) $-4.98 (-591.7%)
2020 $1.8b (8.7%) $-54.4m (66.3%) $69.4m (414.9%) -3.0% (69.0%) $-1.64 (67.1%)
2021 $2.6b (42.7%) $315.0m (679.4%) $250.0m (260.1%) 12.2% (506.0%) $8.42 (613.4%)
2022 $2.6b (2.2%) $-65.2m (-120.7%) $44.0m (-82.4%) -2.5% (-120.2%) $-1.72 (-120.4%)
2023 $3.1b (15.5%) $298.5m (558.2%) $142.9m (225.1%) 9.8% (496.5%) $7.80 (553.5%)
2024 $3.8b (24.6%) $531.8m (78.2%) $449.1m (214.2%) 14.0% (43.0%) $13.86 (77.7%)
2025 $4.6b (20.4%) $890.8m (67.5%) $668.3m (48.8%) 19.5% (39.1%) $23.13 (66.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in ZAR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model