Discounted Cash Flow
Harley-davidson, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 7.8% (2022) → 1.4% (2023) → -11.1% (2024) → -13.8% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -13.8% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $7.0b | $804.0m | $1.1b | 11.5% | $3.85 |
| 2017 | $6.6b (-5.8%) | $606.1m (-24.6%) | $927.8m (-13.0%) | 9.2% (-20.0%) | $3.03 (-21.3%) |
| 2018 | $6.6b (1.2%) | $617.3m (1.9%) | $1.2b (24.2%) | 9.3% (0.6%) | $3.21 (5.9%) |
| 2019 | $6.2b (-6.2%) | $492.1m (-20.3%) | $797.8m (-30.8%) | 7.9% (-15.0%) | $2.70 (-15.9%) |
| 2020 | $4.7b (-24.4%) | $1.5m (-99.7%) | $1.2b (52.4%) | 0.0% (-99.6%) | $0.01 (-99.6%) |
| 2021 | $6.2b (31.6%) | $755.1m (49978.9%) | $993.8m (-18.3%) | 12.2% (37948.5%) | $4.23 (42200.0%) |
| 2022 | $6.7b (7.8%) | $861.2m (14.1%) | $460.9m (-53.6%) | 12.9% (5.8%) | $5.01 (18.4%) |
| 2023 | $6.8b (1.4%) | $820.8m (-4.7%) | $636.0m (38.0%) | 12.1% (-6.0%) | $4.96 (-1.0%) |
| 2024 | $6.0b (-11.1%) | $528.9m (-35.6%) | $1.0b (58.4%) | 8.8% (-27.5%) | $3.46 (-30.2%) |
| 2025 | $5.2b (-13.8%) | $393.5m (-25.6%) | $482.3m (-52.1%) | 7.6% (-13.7%) | $2.82 (-18.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.