Discounted Cash Flow
H World Group Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $140.4m | $17.3m | $17.3m | 12.3% | $0.42 |
| 2017 | $187.2m (33.3%) | $28.4m (64.1%) | $274.4m (1487.8%) | 15.1% (23.1%) | $0.68 (61.9%) |
| 2018 | $218.3m (16.6%) | $15.5m (-45.3%) | $15.5m (-94.3%) | 7.1% (-53.1%) | $0.37 (-45.6%) |
| 2019 | $1.7b (665.8%) | $37.9m (144.2%) | $37.9m (144.2%) | 2.3% (-68.1%) | $0.89 (140.5%) |
| 2020 | $1.5b (-9.1%) | $-50.1m (-232.3%) | $-50.1m (-232.3%) | -3.3% (-245.5%) | $-1.15 (-229.2%) |
| 2021 | $1.9b (25.4%) | $-10.9m (78.3%) | $179.8m (458.9%) | -0.6% (82.7%) | $-0.02 (98.3%) |
| 2022 | $2.1b (8.4%) | $-39.4m (-261.6%) | $136.0m (-24.4%) | -1.9% (-233.5%) | $-0.08 (-300.0%) |
| 2023 | $3.3b (57.9%) | $85.7m (317.8%) | $85.7m (-37.0%) | 2.6% (238.0%) | $0.18 (325.0%) |
| 2024 | $3.6b (9.2%) | $62.3m (-27.3%) | $62.3m (-27.3%) | 1.7% (-33.4%) | $0.13 (-27.8%) |
| 2025 | $3.8b (5.9%) | $108.3m (73.7%) | $108.3m (73.7%) | 2.9% (64.0%) | $0.24 (84.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.