Discounted Cash Flow
High Templar Tech Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $214.5m | $85.7m | $117.4m | 40.0% | $7.27 |
| 2017 | $109.1m (-49.1%) | $49.5m (-42.3%) | $455.7m (288.2%) | 45.3% (13.4%) | $68.52 (842.5%) |
| 2018 | $166.4m (52.4%) | $53.9m (8.9%) | $474.6m (4.1%) | 32.4% (-28.5%) | $7.82 (-88.6%) |
| 2019 | $188.8m (13.5%) | $69.7m (29.4%) | $69.7m (-85.3%) | 36.9% (14.0%) | $46.88 (499.5%) |
| 2020 | $84.0m (-55.5%) | $21.8m (-68.7%) | $21.8m (-68.7%) | 26.0% (-29.6%) | $15.12 (-67.7%) |
| 2021 | $38.6m (-54.1%) | $13.7m (-37.1%) | $66.0m (201.9%) | 35.6% (37.0%) | $9.28 (-38.6%) |
| 2022 | $12.4m (-67.7%) | $-7.8m (-156.8%) | $-1.9m (-102.9%) | -62.7% (-276.0%) | $-5.88 (-163.4%) |
| 2023 | $18.8m (50.9%) | $819.6k (110.5%) | $819.6k (143.2%) | 4.4% (107.0%) | $0.72 (112.2%) |
| 2024 | $32.2m (71.3%) | $1.9m (128.0%) | $1.9m (128.0%) | 5.8% (33.1%) | $2.00 (177.8%) |
| 2025 | $6.1m (-81.1%) | $15.1m (706.3%) | $84.8m (4439.2%) | 247.4% (4160.2%) | $17.48 (774.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.