Discounted Cash Flow

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

HWM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from EUR to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 49/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 65%, net income 50% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $14.4b $-1.1b $-297.1m -7.6% $-2.31
2017 $15.1b (4.6%) $-86.2m (92.1%) $122.3m (141.2%) -0.6% (92.5%) $-0.28 (87.9%)
2018 $16.3b (8.1%) $748.1m (967.6%) $-642.0m (-624.8%) 4.6% (902.3%) $1.33 (575.0%)
2019 $16.5b (1.3%) $547.6m (-26.8%) $-209.7m (67.3%) 3.3% (-27.7%) $1.05 (-21.1%)
2020 $6.1b (-62.9%) $304.1m (-44.5%) $-300.6m (-43.3%) 5.0% (49.9%)
2021 $5.8b (-5.5%) $300.6m (-1.1%) $291.3m (196.9%) 5.2% (4.6%) $0.60
2022 $6.6b (13.9%) $546.5m (81.8%) $629.2m (116.0%) 8.3% (59.6%) $1.12 (86.7%)
2023 $7.7b (17.3%) $891.4m (63.1%) $794.7m (26.3%) 11.5% (39.1%) $1.85 (65.2%)
2024 $8.7b (11.9%) $1.3b (51.0%) $1.1b (43.3%) 15.5% (34.9%) $2.83 (53.0%)
2025 $9.6b (11.1%) $1.8b (30.6%) $1.7b (46.5%) 18.3% (17.6%) $3.73 (31.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model