Discounted Cash Flow
Intchains Group Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.6m | $1.2m | $2.3m | 3.0% | $0.08 |
| 2021 | $94.2m (126.5%) | $67.1m (5358.3%) | $58.7m (2467.0%) | 71.2% (2310.3%) | $4.46 (5475.0%) |
| 2022 | $10.2m (-89.1%) | $7.7m (-88.6%) | $48.6m (-17.2%) | 75.0% (5.2%) | $0.44 (-90.1%) |
| 2023 | $1.7m (-83.1%) | $-563.0k (-107.3%) | $-1.7m (-103.5%) | -32.6% (-143.5%) | $-0.03 (-106.8%) |
| 2024 | $5.8m (233.3%) | $1.1m (286.8%) | $1.1m (162.4%) | 18.3% (156.0%) | $0.06 (300.0%) |
| 2025 | $4.7m (-18.2%) | $-1.0m (-196.4%) | $132.9k (-87.4%) | -21.5% (-217.8%) | $-0.06 (-200.0%) |
| 2026 | $71.2m (1411.5%) | $-5.6m (-452.5%) | $3.6m (2639.6%) | -7.9% (63.4%) | $-0.40 (-566.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.