Discounted Cash Flow

Icon Plc. Foreign

ICLR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from EUR to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 67/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 47%, net income 47% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.9b $304.5m $251.6m 15.7% $4.75
2017 $2.0b (5.5%) $327.0m (7.4%) $393.0m (56.2%) 16.0% (1.8%) $5.20 (9.5%)
2018 $3.0b (47.6%) $374.8m (14.6%) $255.8m (-34.9%) 12.4% (-22.4%) $5.96 (14.6%)
2019 $3.3b (8.1%) $434.4m (15.9%) $420.4m (64.3%) 13.3% (7.2%) $6.85 (14.9%)
2020 $3.2b (-0.3%) $386.0m (-11.1%) $600.5m (42.9%) 11.9% (-10.9%) $6.20 (-9.5%)
2021 $6.4b (95.9%) $177.9m (-53.9%) $854.2m (42.2%) 2.8% (-76.5%) $2.28 (-63.2%)
2022 $9.0b (41.2%) $587.0m (229.9%) $489.2m (-42.7%) 6.5% (133.5%) $6.20 (171.9%)
2023 $9.4b (4.9%) $711.3m (21.2%) $1.2b (142.3%) 7.5% (15.5%) $7.46 (20.3%)
2024 $9.6b (2.0%) $919.4m (29.3%) $1.3b (9.6%) 9.6% (26.7%) $9.60 (28.7%)
2025 $9.6b (-0.4%) $266.4m (-71.0%) $1.0b (-22.9%) 2.8% (-70.9%) $2.92 (-69.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model