Discounted Cash Flow

Imperial OIL Ltd.

IMO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CAD to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 49/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 72%, net income 73% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $18.1b $1.6b $681.8m 8.6% $2.55
2017 $21.1b (16.3%) $354.7m (-77.4%) $1.3b (87.9%) 1.7% (-80.5%) $0.58 (-77.3%)
2018 $25.3b (20.0%) $1.7b (372.2%) $1.8b (37.3%) 6.6% (293.4%) $2.87 (394.8%)
2019 $24.6b (-2.8%) $1.6b (-4.9%) $2.0b (14.9%) 6.5% (-2.2%) $2.88 (0.3%)
2020 $16.1b (-34.5%) $-1.3b (-184.4%) $-50.7m (-102.5%) -8.3% (-228.8%) $-2.53 (-187.8%)
2021 $27.1b (68.3%) $1.8b (233.5%) $3.2b (6340.0%) 6.6% (179.3%) $3.48 (237.5%)
2022 $43.2b (59.1%) $5.3b (196.1%) $6.5b (105.0%) 12.3% (86.1%) $11.47 (229.6%)
2023 $36.9b (-14.6%) $3.5b (-33.4%) $1.4b (-78.2%) 9.6% (-22.0%) $8.51 (-25.8%)
2024 $37.3b (1.1%) $3.5b (-2.0%) $3.0b (111.1%) 9.3% (-3.1%) $9.05 (6.3%)
2025 $34.1b (-8.6%) $2.4b (-31.8%) $3.4b (14.3%) 6.9% (-25.3%) $6.50 (-28.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model