Discounted Cash Flow
Iqiyi, Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.7b | $-458.4m | $389.5m | -27.4% | $-23.20 |
| 2017 | $2.6b (54.6%) | $-557.2m (-21.6%) | $445.8m (14.4%) | -21.5% (21.4%) | $0.30 (101.3%) |
| 2018 | $541.9m (-79.1%) | $-197.6m (64.5%) | $416.8m (-6.5%) | -36.5% (-69.5%) | $-7.29 (-2530.0%) |
| 2019 | $621.0m (14.6%) | $-221.1m (-11.9%) | $566.6m (35.9%) | -35.6% (2.3%) | $-6.06 (16.9%) |
| 2020 | $678.9m (9.3%) | $-160.8m (27.3%) | $-812.3m (-243.4%) | -23.7% (33.5%) | $-4.08 (32.7%) |
| 2021 | $714.9m (5.3%) | $-144.4m (10.2%) | $-893.6m (-10.0%) | -20.2% (14.8%) | $-3.33 (18.4%) |
| 2022 | $626.9m (-12.3%) | $-2.9m (98.0%) | $-14.3m (98.4%) | -0.5% (97.7%) | $-0.06 (98.2%) |
| 2023 | $4.8b (658.1%) | $40.4m (1473.2%) | $499.0m (3591.8%) | 0.9% (281.1%) | $0.87 (1550.0%) |
| 2024 | $4.4b (-8.3%) | $15.6m (-61.4%) | $313.0m (-37.3%) | 0.4% (-57.9%) | $0.33 (-62.1%) |
| 2025 | $4.1b (-6.6%) | $-4.4m (-128.2%) | $13.7m (-95.6%) | -0.1% (-130.2%) | $-0.09 (-127.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.