Discounted Cash Flow
Jd.com, Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5.6b | $-81.7m | $-81.7m | -1.5% | $-0.20 |
| 2017 | $8.3b (48.6%) | $-1.7m (97.9%) | $3.2b (4026.2%) | -0.0% (98.6%) | $-0.01 (95.0%) |
| 2018 | $10.0b (20.7%) | $-417.5m (-23799.6%) | $1.7b (-48.3%) | -4.2% (-19706.4%) | $-0.13 (-1200.0%) |
| 2019 | $12.4b (23.3%) | $1.8b (535.1%) | $3.3b (99.2%) | 14.7% (452.8%) | $0.60 (561.5%) |
| 2020 | $17.0b (37.9%) | $7.4b (305.5%) | $5.8b (76.6%) | 43.2% (194.0%) | $2.51 (318.3%) |
| 2021 | $22.3b (30.6%) | $-530.7m (-107.2%) | $-530.7m (-109.1%) | -2.4% (-105.5%) | $-0.18 (-107.2%) |
| 2022 | $22.6b (1.6%) | $1.5b (391.6%) | $8.5b (1701.7%) | 6.8% (387.0%) | $0.48 (366.7%) |
| 2023 | $22.8b (0.7%) | $3.6b (132.8%) | $8.8b (3.4%) | 15.8% (131.3%) | $1.08 (125.0%) |
| 2024 | $23.7b (4.0%) | $6.2b (71.1%) | $7.9b (-10.5%) | 26.0% (64.6%) | $1.90 (75.9%) |
| 2025 | $27.9b (17.9%) | $2.9b (-52.5%) | $1.7b (-78.8%) | 10.5% (-59.7%) | $0.99 (-47.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.