Discounted Cash Flow
9F Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $11.0m | $-18.8m | $-18.8m | -171.2% | $3.23 |
| 2018 | $828.4m (7445.6%) | $987.1k (105.3%) | $349.7m (1961.1%) | 0.1% (100.1%) | $10.57 (227.2%) |
| 2019 | $94.8m (-88.6%) | $-884.2k (-189.6%) | $-64.0m (-118.3%) | -0.9% (-883.1%) | $-1.79 (-116.9%) |
| 2020 | $28.7m (-69.7%) | $-1.1m (-29.7%) | $-1.1m (98.2%) | -4.0% (-328.3%) | $-1.74 (2.8%) |
| 2021 | $113.5m (295.6%) | $-184.6k (83.9%) | $-34.2m (-2886.1%) | -0.2% (95.9%) | $-0.17 (90.2%) |
| 2022 | $83.7m (-26.2%) | $29.2k (115.8%) | $9.4m (127.6%) | 0.0% (121.5%) | $-0.37 (-117.6%) |
| 2023 | $61.5m (-26.6%) | $23.7k (-18.9%) | $9.3m (-1.3%) | 0.0% (10.5%) | $-0.08 (78.4%) |
| 2024 | $46.2m (-24.8%) | $-25.8k (-208.8%) | $6.9m (-25.6%) | -0.1% (-244.8%) | $0.03 (137.5%) |
| 2025 | $43.2m (-6.5%) | $121.1k (569.4%) | $31.0m (346.7%) | 0.3% (601.9%) | $0.10 (233.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.