Discounted Cash Flow
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 5.8% (2022) → 22.9% (2023) → 12.3% (2024) → 2.8% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 2.8% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $95.7b | $24.7b | $20.2b | 25.9% | $6.24 |
| 2017 | $99.6b (4.1%) | $24.4b (-1.2%) | $-2.5b (-112.4%) | 24.5% (-5.1%) | $6.35 (1.8%) |
| 2018 | $109.0b (9.4%) | $32.5b (32.9%) | $14.2b (667.3%) | 29.8% (21.4%) | $9.04 (42.4%) |
| 2019 | $115.6b (6.1%) | $36.4b (12.2%) | $6.0b (-57.4%) | 31.5% (5.8%) | $10.75 (18.9%) |
| 2020 | $119.5b (3.4%) | $29.1b (-20.0%) | $-79.9b (-1421.7%) | 24.4% (-22.7%) | $8.89 (-17.3%) |
| 2021 | $121.6b (1.8%) | $48.3b (65.9%) | $78.1b (197.7%) | 39.7% (63.0%) | $15.39 (73.1%) |
| 2022 | $128.7b (5.8%) | $37.7b (-22.1%) | $107.1b (37.2%) | 29.3% (-26.3%) | $12.10 (-21.4%) |
| 2023 | $158.1b (22.9%) | $49.6b (31.5%) | $13.0b (-87.9%) | 31.3% (7.1%) | $16.25 (34.3%) |
| 2024 | $177.6b (12.3%) | $58.5b (18.0%) | $-42.0b (-423.8%) | 32.9% (5.1%) | $19.79 (21.8%) |
| 2025 | $182.4b (2.8%) | $57.0b (-2.4%) | $-147.8b (-251.8%) | 31.3% (-5.0%) | $20.05 (1.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.