Discounted Cash Flow
Jowell Global Ltd. Foreign
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $3.6m | $220.3k | $23.4k | 6.1% | — |
| 2019 | $9.2m (155.4%) | $190.6k (-13.5%) | $-127.7k (-645.7%) | 2.1% (-66.1%) | $0.06 |
| 2020 | $14.4m (56.8%) | $534.7k (180.6%) | $945.0k (840.3%) | 3.7% (78.9%) | $0.18 (200.0%) |
| 2021 | $25.5m (76.4%) | $-952.5k (-278.1%) | $-2.7m (-384.5%) | -3.7% (-201.0%) | $-0.26 (-244.4%) |
| 2022 | $31.3m (22.9%) | $686 (100.1%) | $-1.8m (33.5%) | 0.0% (100.1%) | $-0.39 (-50.0%) |
| 2023 | $23.9m (-23.8%) | $-7.9k (-1247.9%) | $-2.0m (-12.5%) | -0.0% (-1606.4%) | $-5.38 (-1279.5%) |
| 2024 | $19.8m (-16.9%) | $-5.7k (27.1%) | $117.8k (105.9%) | -0.0% (12.3%) | $-3.69 (31.4%) |
| 2025 | $24.6m (24.1%) | $161 (102.8%) | $-228.2k (-293.7%) | 0.0% (102.3%) | $-2.87 (22.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.