Discounted Cash Flow
36kr Holdings Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $17.9m | $756.7k | $-1.8m | 4.2% | $0.01 |
| 2018 | $44.5m (148.2%) | $-12.0m (-1683.2%) | $-9.2m (-423.8%) | -26.9% (-737.9%) | $-0.28 (-4028.6%) |
| 2019 | $14.0m (-68.5%) | $-126.5m (-955.6%) | $-23.7m (-157.4%) | -903.1% (-3252.5%) | $-0.33 (-20.7%) |
| 2020 | $8.8m (-37.1%) | $-41.7m (67.0%) | $-2.6m (89.1%) | -472.8% (47.6%) | $-0.04 (87.3%) |
| 2021 | $47.1m (434.4%) | $-13.3m (68.0%) | $28.7m (1206.6%) | -28.3% (94.0%) | $-0.09 (-107.1%) |
| 2022 | $48.0m (1.8%) | $3.4m (125.3%) | $-900.2k (-103.1%) | 7.0% (124.8%) | $0.02 (124.1%) |
| 2023 | $50.6m (5.5%) | $-13.3m (-494.3%) | $-19.0m (-2006.7%) | -26.2% (-473.8%) | $-0.09 (-509.5%) |
| 2024 | $34.4m (-32.1%) | $-20.9m (-57.7%) | $-5.0m (73.8%) | -60.9% (-132.2%) | $-0.13 (-51.2%) |
| 2025 | $33.9m (-1.4%) | $1.7m (108.1%) | $2.8m (156.4%) | 5.0% (108.2%) | $0.01 (108.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.