Discounted Cash Flow
Li Auto Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | $10.2m | $-173.8m | $-209.8m | -1710.3% | $-7.25 |
| 2019 | $42.4m (317.4%) | $-486.2m (-179.8%) | $-284.8m (-35.7%) | -1146.7% (33.0%) | $-12.87 (-77.5%) |
| 2020 | $216.1m (409.7%) | $-18.4m (96.2%) | $-18.4m (93.5%) | -8.5% (99.3%) | $-0.91 (92.9%) |
| 2021 | $632.0m (192.4%) | $-7.5m (59.2%) | $-7.5m (59.2%) | -1.2% (86.0%) | $-0.03 (96.7%) |
| 2022 | $979.1m (54.9%) | $-43.5m (-478.4%) | $-43.5m (-478.4%) | -4.4% (-273.3%) | $-0.15 (-400.0%) |
| 2023 | $18.5b (1786.3%) | $1.8b (4147.8%) | $7.3b (16857.4%) | 9.5% (314.6%) | $0.84 (660.0%) |
| 2024 | $21.5b (16.6%) | $1.2b (-31.9%) | $1.9b (-73.7%) | 5.6% (-41.6%) | $0.55 (-34.5%) |
| 2025 | $16.7b (-22.3%) | $167.7m (-86.0%) | $167.7m (-91.3%) | 1.0% (-82.0%) | $0.08 (-85.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.