Discounted Cash Flow
Lotus Technology Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $6.4m | $-6.1m | $-42.6k | -95.7% | $-7.23 |
| 2017 | $9.0m (40.5%) | $-4.7m (23.1%) | $-1.1m (-2483.9%) | -52.4% (45.3%) | $-4.90 (32.2%) |
| 2018 | $12.6m (41.1%) | $-6.6m (-40.2%) | $-2.9m (-165.1%) | -52.0% (0.6%) | $-19.19 (-291.6%) |
| 2019 | $15.3m (20.9%) | $-3.8m (42.5%) | $-4.8m (-64.6%) | -24.8% (52.4%) | $-6.49 (66.2%) |
| 2020 | $9.8m (-35.8%) | $-2.9m (24.1%) | $-779.9k (83.8%) | -29.3% (-18.2%) | $-4.16 (35.9%) |
| 2021 | $549.8k (-94.4%) | $-16.5m (-474.3%) | $-21.6m (-2668.8%) | -2997.9% (-10142.8%) | $-0.33 (92.1%) |
| 2022 | $1.4m (159.2%) | $-107.9m (-554.9%) | $-68.5m (-217.3%) | -7574.8% (-152.7%) | $-1.52 (-360.6%) |
| 2023 | $101.2m (7004.8%) | $-110.6m (-2.5%) | $-68.3m (0.3%) | -109.3% (98.6%) | $-1.60 (-5.3%) |
| 2024 | $137.8m (36.1%) | $-164.8m (-48.9%) | $-137.1m (-100.7%) | -119.5% (-9.4%) | $-1.72 (-7.5%) |
| 2025 | $77.4m (-43.8%) | $-69.2m (58.0%) | $-53.6m (60.9%) | -89.4% (25.2%) | $-0.72 (58.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.