Discounted Cash Flow

Lululemon Athletica Inc.

LULU · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CAD to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 65/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 49%, net income 38% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.5b $193.2m $112.8m 12.9% $1.90
2017 $1.7b (13.8%) $220.3m (14.0%) $172.0m (52.6%) 12.9% (0.2%) $2.21 (16.3%)
2018 $1.9b (13.0%) $187.9m (-14.7%) $240.7m (39.9%) 9.8% (-24.5%) $1.90 (-14.0%)
2019 $2.4b (24.1%) $351.4m (87.0%) $375.5m (56.0%) 14.7% (50.7%) $3.63 (91.1%)
2020 $2.9b (21.0%) $468.9m (33.4%) $280.5m (-25.3%) 16.2% (10.3%) $4.95 (36.4%)
2021 $3.2b (10.6%) $427.7m (-8.8%) $417.0m (48.6%) 13.4% (-17.5%) $4.52 (-8.7%)
2022 $4.5b (42.1%) $708.4m (65.6%) $722.4m (73.2%) 15.6% (16.5%) $7.52 (66.4%)
2023 $5.9b (29.6%) $620.8m (-12.4%) $238.1m (-67.0%) 10.5% (-32.4%) $6.70 (-10.9%)
2024 $7.0b (18.6%) $1.1b (81.4%) $1.2b (401.6%) 16.1% (52.9%) $12.23 (82.5%)
2025 $7.7b (10.1%) $1.3b (17.1%) $1.2b (-3.7%) 17.1% (6.3%) $14.67 (20.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model