Discounted Cash Flow
Lexinfintech Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $413.9m | $-17.6m | $51.8m | -4.2% | $-2.01 |
| 2017 | $58.8m (-85.8%) | $5.5m (131.3%) | $37.2m (-28.2%) | 9.4% (320.4%) | $0.23 (111.4%) |
| 2018 | $697.3m (1085.3%) | $42.9m (678.5%) | $59.4m (59.6%) | 6.1% (-34.3%) | $5.45 (2269.6%) |
| 2019 | $1.4b (102.2%) | $49.1m (14.6%) | $-17.7m (-129.9%) | 3.5% (-43.3%) | $6.14 (12.7%) |
| 2020 | $1.2b (-16.4%) | $13.6m (-72.3%) | $-6.8m (61.7%) | 1.2% (-66.9%) | $1.56 (-74.6%) |
| 2021 | $1.3b (12.2%) | $54.6m (301.6%) | $59.6m (976.0%) | 4.1% (257.9%) | $5.73 (267.3%) |
| 2022 | $952.6m (-28.0%) | $17.7m (-67.5%) | $-1.1m (-101.8%) | 1.9% (-54.9%) | $2.21 (-61.4%) |
| 2023 | $1.3b (31.4%) | $22.4m (26.3%) | $53.7m (5070.6%) | 1.8% (-3.8%) | $3.17 (43.4%) |
| 2024 | $1.4b (13.5%) | $22.5m (0.4%) | $17.0m (-68.3%) | 1.6% (-11.6%) | $3.24 (2.2%) |
| 2025 | $1.3b (-10.0%) | $35.8m (59.1%) | $69.5m (308.0%) | 2.8% (76.7%) | $4.72 (45.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.