Discounted Cash Flow

Lloyds Banking Group Plc. ADR

LYG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from GBP to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 31/100 (unstable) — FCF YoY std dev 97%, net income 48% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $53.7b $2.8b $-1.1b 5.2% $0.02
2017 $46.4b (-13.6%) $5.2b (84.5%) $-4.3b (-288.7%) 11.1% (113.5%) $0.05 (104.2%)
2018 $30.0b (-35.5%) $5.8b (13.0%) $-15.1b (-247.6%) 19.5% (75.1%) $0.06 (12.2%)
2019 $57.5b (91.7%) $4.0b (-32.0%) $15.3b (201.6%) 6.9% (-64.5%) $0.04 (-36.4%)
2020 $39.6b (-31.1%) $1.8b (-54.9%) $1.8b (-88.3%) 4.5% (-34.6%) $0.01 (-65.7%)
2021 $50.8b (28.4%) $7.8b (338.8%) $9.0b (402.4%) 15.4% (241.8%) $0.07 (525.0%)
2022 $7.9b (-84.5%) $7.4b (-5.6%) $24.6b (174.2%) 94.0% (508.5%) $0.07 (-2.7%)
2023 $48.0b (509.6%) $7.4b (0.0%) $1.8b (-92.5%) 15.4% (-83.6%) $0.08 (4.1%)
2024 $46.5b (-3.2%) $6.0b (-19.0%) $-13.6b (-839.2%) 12.9% (-16.4%) $0.06 (-17.1%)
2025 $26.3b (-43.3%) $6.3b (5.4%) $-843.7m (93.8%) 24.0% (86.0%) $0.07 (11.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model