Discounted Cash Flow

Mercadolibre Inc.

MELI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from ARS to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 26/100 (unstable) — FCF YoY std dev 90%, net income 89% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $557.3k $90.0k $90.0k 16.1% $3.09
2017 $802.9k (44.1%) $9.1k (-89.9%) $9.1k (-89.9%) 1.1% (-93.0%) $0.31 (-90.0%)
2018 $950.2k (18.3%) $-24.1k (-365.5%) $-24.1k (-365.5%) -2.5% (-324.3%) $-0.82 (-364.5%)
2019 $-113.5k (-370.1%) $-2.7m (-10941.6%) $-3.71 (-352.4%)
2020 $-467 (99.6%) $-2.7m (0.6%) $-0.08 (97.8%)
2021 $4.7m $55.0k (11882.7%) $55.0k (102.1%) 1.2% $1.67 (2187.5%)
2022 $9.2m (96.2%) $318.1k (478.6%) $318.1k (478.6%) 3.5% (195.0%) $9.57 (473.1%)
2023 $9.6m (4.4%) $651.4k (104.8%) $651.4k (104.8%) 6.8% (96.2%) $19.64 (105.2%)
2024 $13.7m (43.6%) $1.3m (93.6%) $-5.8m (-990.8%) 9.2% (34.9%) $37.69 (91.9%)
2025 $19.1m (39.1%) $1.3m (4.5%) $-1.7m (70.0%) 6.9% (-24.9%) $39.40 (4.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in ARS. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model