Discounted Cash Flow
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $18.7b | $2.4b | $2.4b | 12.6% | $14.33 |
| 2018 | $11.4b (-38.8%) | $3.7b (59.4%) | $-2.9b (-224.1%) | 32.8% (160.2%) | $22.77 (58.9%) |
| 2019 | $22.3b (94.7%) | $548.2m (-85.4%) | $3.3b (211.9%) | 2.5% (-92.5%) | $3.33 (-85.4%) |
| 2020 | $22.4b (0.8%) | $974.8m (77.8%) | $974.8m (-70.2%) | 4.3% (76.3%) | $5.92 (77.8%) |
| 2021 | $22.7b (1.1%) | $3.8b (287.3%) | $1.7b (71.3%) | 16.6% (283.0%) | $229.27 (3772.8%) |
| 2022 | $13.7b (-39.6%) | $-679.6m (-118.0%) | $-679.6m (-140.7%) | -5.0% (-129.8%) | $-41.28 (-118.0%) |
| 2023 | $27.8b (102.3%) | $-90.9m (86.6%) | $5.3b (884.3%) | -0.3% (93.4%) | $-5.52 (86.6%) |
| 2024 | $25.6b (-7.7%) | $5.9b (6613.5%) | $-24.1b (-552.6%) | 23.1% (7154.9%) | $359.70 (6616.3%) |
| 2025 | $21.2b (-17.4%) | $3.9b (-35.0%) | $-1.8b (92.5%) | 18.2% (-21.3%) | $234.55 (-34.8%) |
| 2026 | $29.2b (38.1%) | $7.5b (95.2%) | $-13.6b (-648.6%) | 25.7% (41.4%) | $466.16 (98.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.