Discounted Cash Flow
Hello Group Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $82.5m | $21.7m | $31.5m | 26.3% | $0.38 |
| 2017 | $196.6m (138.3%) | $47.5m (119.3%) | $58.9m (87.1%) | 24.2% (-8.0%) | $0.81 (113.2%) |
| 2018 | $290.8m (47.9%) | $61.1m (28.6%) | $66.9m (13.5%) | 21.0% (-13.1%) | $1.01 (24.7%) |
| 2019 | $364.4m (25.3%) | $443.0m (625.4%) | $112.7m (68.5%) | 121.6% (478.8%) | $1.03 (2.0%) |
| 2020 | $343.3m (-5.8%) | $313.7m (-29.2%) | $67.6m (-40.1%) | 91.4% (-24.8%) | $0.77 (-25.2%) |
| 2021 | $341.1m (-0.7%) | $-434.5m (-238.5%) | $34.3m (-49.3%) | -127.4% (-239.4%) | $-1.13 (-246.8%) |
| 2022 | $274.7m (-19.5%) | $221.3m (150.9%) | $181.2m (429.0%) | 80.6% (163.3%) | $0.55 (148.7%) |
| 2023 | $252.1m (-8.2%) | $291.9m (31.9%) | $327.4m (80.7%) | 115.8% (43.7%) | $0.73 (32.7%) |
| 2024 | $215.8m (-14.4%) | $155.0m (-46.9%) | $238.7m (-27.1%) | 71.8% (-38.0%) | $0.39 (-46.6%) |
| 2025 | $221.1m (2.4%) | $119.9m (-22.7%) | $165.9m (-30.5%) | 54.2% (-24.5%) | $0.35 (-10.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.