Discounted Cash Flow
Medirom Healthcare Technologies Inc. ADR
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 47/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 45%,
net income 74% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $25.4m | $112.5k | $3.0k | 0.4% | $4.63 |
| 2020 | $21.7m (-14.5%) | $-3.5m (-3210.3%) | $-2.6m (-85372.4%) | -16.1% (-3737.7%) | $-133.97 (-2993.5%) |
| 2021 | $35.1m (61.9%) | $-6.4m (-83.8%) | $-3.8m (-46.8%) | -18.3% (-13.5%) | $-203.13 (-51.6%) |
| 2022 | $45.1m (28.5%) | $966.8k (115.0%) | $-5.2m (-38.9%) | 2.1% (111.7%) | $30.54 (115.0%) |
| 2023 | $44.3m (-1.8%) | $749.0k (-22.5%) | $-4.1m (21.1%) | 1.7% (-21.1%) | $23.64 (-22.6%) |
| 2024 | $53.9m (21.5%) | $965.5k (28.9%) | $-8.7m (-111.2%) | 1.8% (6.1%) | $29.13 (23.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.