Discounted Cash Flow
Newegg Commerce, Inc. Foreign
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.9m | $-1.5m | $-411.1k | -77.5% | $-0.97 |
| 2017 | $131.5k (-93.2%) | $-765.9k (49.3%) | $-806.5k (-96.2%) | -582.4% (-651.5%) | $-0.30 (69.1%) |
| 2018 | $83.4k (-36.6%) | $-1.3m (-73.5%) | $-541.2k (32.9%) | -1592.8% (-173.5%) | $-0.51 (-70.0%) |
| 2019 | $57.2k (-31.5%) | $-663.7k (50.0%) | $-1.8m (-229.3%) | -1160.8% (27.1%) | $-0.25 (51.0%) |
| 2020 | $53.5k (-6.5%) | $-483.4k (27.2%) | $-1.3m (29.0%) | -904.1% (22.1%) | $-0.96 (-284.0%) |
| 2021 | $354.3m (662657.7%) | $-5.4m (-1018.6%) | $-10.0m (-690.4%) | -1.5% (99.8%) | $0.10 (110.4%) |
| 2022 | $256.5m (-27.6%) | $8.6m (258.4%) | $1.7m (116.8%) | 3.3% (318.8%) | $-0.15 (-250.0%) |
| 2023 | $223.2m (-13.0%) | $-8.8m (-202.7%) | $-5.1m (-402.6%) | -3.9% (-218.0%) | $-0.16 (-6.7%) |
| 2024 | $184.2m (-17.5%) | $-6.5m (26.6%) | $-661.9k (87.0%) | -3.5% (11.0%) | $-2.25 (-1306.2%) |
| 2025 | $215.4m (16.9%) | $-727.8k (88.7%) | $-4.4m (-568.3%) | -0.3% (90.4%) | $-0.24 (89.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.