Discounted Cash Flow

NIO Inc. ADR

NIO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD (1 ordinary shares per ADR)

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⚠ Cash flow predictability 39/100 (unstable) — FCF YoY std dev 76%, net income 56% (full history)

▲ Accelerating sales growth

Sales growth has accelerated: 9.6% (2023) → 15.0% (2024) → 38.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been accelerating in recent years and is now 38.9% — rapidly accelerating growth may be difficult to sustain at this pace, or the DCF (based on historical averages) may understate future momentum.

⛔ High governance / audit risk

Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.

Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.

Average annual growth rates

Metric	10-Year	5-Year	3-Year
Sales	—	—	—
Free Cash Flow	—	—	—
Average (FCF & NI)	—	—	—
Net Income	—	—	—
Dividends	—	—	—

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric	10-Year	5-Year	3-Year
Sales	—	—	—
Free Cash Flow	—	—	—
Average (FCF & NI)	—	—	—
Net Income	—	—	—

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

—

Free cash flow growth —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Averaged growth (FCF & NI) —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Net income growth —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Sales growth (not added to calculations) —

10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

Or enter your own rate

Inflation rate (used with B/E only)

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR	Sales	Net Income	Free Cash Flow	Net Margin	EPS (diluted)
2016	—	—	—	—	—
2017	$0	$-1.1b	$-743.4m	—	$-346.84
2018	$107.4m	$-3.5b (-208.5%)	$-1.3b (-79.3%)	-3239.5%	$-70.23 (79.8%)
2019	$167.6m (56.1%)	$-1.7b (51.1%)	$-1.5b (-10.1%)	-1015.4% (68.7%)	$-11.08 (84.2%)
2020	$371.5m (121.7%)	$-836.6m (50.8%)	$179.1m (112.2%)	-225.2% (77.8%)	$-4.74 (57.2%)
2021	$845.5m (127.6%)	$-1.6b (-88.4%)	$75.7m (-57.7%)	-186.4% (17.2%)	$-1.05 (77.8%)
2022	$1.1b (26.0%)	$-2.2b (-37.7%)	$-1.2b (-1683.6%)	-203.8% (-9.3%)	$-1.29 (-22.9%)
2023	$1.2b (9.6%)	$-3.2b (-45.2%)	$-868.9m (27.5%)	-270.1% (-32.5%)	$-1.75 (-35.7%)
2024	$1.3b (15.0%)	$-3.4b (-7.1%)	$-1.7b (-101.2%)	-251.6% (6.8%)	$-1.51 (13.7%)
2025	$1.9b (38.9%)	$-2.3b (31.3%)	$-228.1m (86.9%)	-124.5% (50.5%)	$-0.98 (35.1%)

Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth: —

Projection period: — years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year	Projected cash flow	Discount Factor	Present Value

PV of projected FCF: —

Terminal FCF: —

Terminal value: —

PV of terminal value: —

Enterprise value (DCF): —

Current price: —

Alternative DCF Models

Model	Fair Value	Upside	PV(FCFs)	PV(Terminal)	Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) ⓘ	—	—	—	—	10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline) ⓘ	—	—	—	—	—
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) ⓘ	—	—	—	N/A	—

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model