Discounted Cash Flow
Niu Technologies ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $52.9m | $-34.7m | $-19.9m | -65.6% | $-22.35 |
| 2017 | $114.7m (116.8%) | $-27.5m (20.7%) | $8.5m (142.6%) | -24.0% (63.4%) | $-7.02 (68.6%) |
| 2018 | $32.0m (-72.1%) | $-7.6m (72.5%) | $465.6k (-94.5%) | -23.6% (1.6%) | $-5.30 (24.5%) |
| 2019 | $44.5m (38.8%) | $4.1m (153.8%) | $9.6m (1963.9%) | 9.2% (138.8%) | $0.18 (103.4%) |
| 2020 | $55.9m (25.6%) | $3.9m (-5.3%) | $3.9m (-59.9%) | 6.9% (-24.6%) | $0.17 (-5.6%) |
| 2021 | $86.7m (55.2%) | $5.3m (37.1%) | $7.2m (87.4%) | 6.1% (-11.7%) | $0.23 (35.3%) |
| 2022 | $68.5m (-21.0%) | $-1.1m (-120.2%) | $-1.1m (-114.8%) | -1.6% (-125.6%) | $-0.05 (-121.7%) |
| 2023 | $395.4m (477.2%) | $-5.7m (-433.9%) | $12.3m (1252.0%) | -1.4% (7.5%) | $-0.24 (-380.0%) |
| 2024 | $490.3m (24.0%) | $-3.9m (30.9%) | $5.4m (-56.6%) | -0.8% (44.3%) | $-0.17 (29.2%) |
| 2025 | $642.3m (31.0%) | $-839.8k (78.7%) | $48.9m (813.7%) | -0.1% (83.8%) | $-0.04 (76.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.