Discounted Cash Flow
Noah Holdings Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $54.0m | $13.8m | $12.6m | 25.6% | $3.29 |
| 2017 | $64.8m (20.0%) | $17.5m (26.5%) | $10.9m (-13.2%) | 27.0% (5.4%) | $4.15 (26.1%) |
| 2018 | $71.3m (10.1%) | $17.6m (0.6%) | $19.5m (79.3%) | 24.7% (-8.6%) | $4.02 (-3.1%) |
| 2019 | $72.6m (1.8%) | $17.8m (0.9%) | $26.2m (34.0%) | 24.4% (-0.9%) | $3.90 (-3.0%) |
| 2020 | $75.5m (4.0%) | $-17.0m (-195.9%) | $17.0m (-35.0%) | -22.5% (-192.2%) | $-3.68 (-194.4%) |
| 2021 | $100.5m (33.0%) | $30.7m (280.6%) | $-17.5m (-203.0%) | 30.6% (235.8%) | $6.14 (266.8%) |
| 2022 | $67.0m (-33.3%) | $21.1m (-31.3%) | $12.3m (170.3%) | 31.5% (2.9%) | $4.14 (-32.6%) |
| 2023 | $494.7m (638.1%) | $21.2m (0.4%) | $24.4m (97.7%) | 4.3% (-86.4%) | $0.41 (-90.1%) |
| 2024 | $390.9m (-21.0%) | $9.7m (-54.2%) | $6.2m (-74.4%) | 2.5% (-42.0%) | $0.19 (-53.7%) |
| 2025 | $392.1m (0.3%) | $11.9m (22.7%) | $18.0m (188.2%) | 3.0% (22.3%) | $0.23 (21.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.