Discounted Cash Flow
Netease, Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $819.9m | $249.2m | $308.2m | 30.4% | $0.51 |
| 2017 | $1.2b (51.2%) | $245.4m (-1.5%) | $230.2m (-25.3%) | 19.8% (-34.9%) | $0.50 (-2.0%) |
| 2018 | $1.5b (17.5%) | $133.4m (-45.6%) | $236.1m (2.6%) | 9.2% (-53.7%) | $0.28 (-44.0%) |
| 2019 | $1.3b (-12.9%) | $284.3m (113.1%) | $342.8m (45.2%) | 22.4% (144.6%) | $0.95 (239.3%) |
| 2020 | $1.7b (32.7%) | $275.7m (-3.0%) | $544.6m (58.9%) | 16.4% (-26.9%) | $0.56 (-41.1%) |
| 2021 | $2.0b (21.8%) | $394.4m (43.1%) | $545.8m (0.2%) | 19.2% (17.5%) | $0.80 (42.9%) |
| 2022 | $2.1b (1.8%) | $426.2m (8.0%) | $4.1b (648.7%) | 20.4% (6.2%) | $0.90 (12.5%) |
| 2023 | $2.2b (4.2%) | $617.8m (45.0%) | $5.2b (27.7%) | 28.4% (39.2%) | $1.29 (43.3%) |
| 2024 | $2.2b (-1.0%) | $606.7m (-1.8%) | $5.9b (12.8%) | 28.2% (-0.8%) | $1.27 (-1.6%) |
| 2025 | $2.4b (11.6%) | $719.8m (18.7%) | $719.8m (-87.8%) | 30.0% (6.3%) | $1.52 (19.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.