Discounted Cash Flow
NU Skin Enterprises, Inc.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 66/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 48%,
net income 58% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $14.3m | $928.6k | $1.5m | 6.5% | $2.58 |
| 2017 | $14.8m (3.2%) | $840.0k (-9.5%) | $1.6m (7.7%) | 5.7% (-12.4%) | $2.45 (-5.0%) |
| 2018 | $17.4m (17.5%) | $791.0k (-5.8%) | $859.1k (-45.4%) | 4.5% (-19.9%) | $2.21 (-9.8%) |
| 2019 | $15.7m (-9.7%) | $1.1m (42.4%) | $726.0k (-15.5%) | 7.2% (57.6%) | $3.13 (41.6%) |
| 2020 | $16.8m (6.7%) | $1.2m (10.3%) | $2.0m (181.9%) | 7.4% (3.4%) | $3.66 (16.9%) |
| 2021 | $17.5m (4.4%) | $955.8k (-23.0%) | $473.6k (-76.9%) | 5.5% (-26.3%) | $2.93 (-19.9%) |
| 2022 | $14.4m (-17.4%) | $680.0k (-28.9%) | $318.0k (-32.8%) | 4.7% (-13.8%) | $2.10 (-28.3%) |
| 2023 | $12.8m (-11.5%) | $55.8k (-91.8%) | $390.4k (22.7%) | 0.4% (-90.7%) | $0.17 (-91.9%) |
| 2024 | $11.2m (-12.0%) | $-951.4k (-1805.6%) | $455.3k (16.6%) | -8.5% (-2039.0%) | $-2.95 (-1835.3%) |
| 2025 | $9.6m (-14.3%) | $1.0m (209.3%) | $298.6k (-34.4%) | 10.8% (227.5%) | $3.25 (210.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.