Discounted Cash Flow

Novo Nordisk A S ADR

NVO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from DKK to USD (1 ordinary shares per ADR)

⚠ Cash flow predictability 67/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 44%, net income 16% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.4b $7.4b $-1.9b 42.8% $14.99
2017 $17.4b (-0.1%) $7.6b (1.8%) $3.8b (300.1%) 43.6% (1.9%) $15.42 (2.9%)
2018 $17.4b (0.1%) $7.4b (-2.2%) $4.5b (19.4%) 42.6% (-2.3%) $15.96 (3.5%)
2019 $19.0b (9.1%) $7.5b (2.0%) $4.9b (8.3%) 39.8% (-6.5%) $16.41 (2.8%)
2020 $19.7b (4.0%) $8.3b (9.4%) $5.5b (11.6%) 41.9% (5.2%) $18.05 (10.0%)
2021 $21.9b (10.9%) $9.2b (11.2%) $5.5b (1.3%) 42.0% (0.3%) $20.79 (15.2%)
2022 $27.5b (25.7%) $10.7b (16.9%) $10.0b (80.4%) 39.0% (-7.0%) $24.51 (17.9%)
2023 $36.1b (31.3%) $16.3b (51.6%) $10.9b (9.2%) 45.1% (15.5%) $18.67 (-23.8%)
2024 $45.1b (25.0%) $19.8b (21.5%) $10.8b (-0.5%) 43.8% (-2.8%) $22.67 (21.4%)
2025 $48.0b (6.4%) $20.3b (2.6%) $4.5b (-58.4%) 42.2% (-3.6%) $23.06 (1.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in DKK. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model